Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://has.hcu.ac.th/jspui/handle/123456789/3922
Title: Mathematical Model of Hand-Foot-Mouth Disease (HFMD) in Thailand
Authors: Chatree Klomkliang
Dechavudh Nityasuddhi
Tassanee Rawiworrakul
ชาตรี กลมเกลี้ยง
เดชาวุธ นิตยสุทธิ
ทัศนีย์ รวิวรกุล
Mahidol University. Graduate School
Huachiew Chalermprakiet University. Faculty of Science and Technology
Mahidol University. Faculty of Public Health,
Keywords: Mathematical model
แบบจำลองทางคณิตศาสตร์
Foot-and-mouth disease
โรคปากและเท้าเปื่อย
โรคมือ เท้า ปาก
Hand Foot Mouth Disease
Issue Date: 2014
Abstract: The Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) Model is a mathematical model which has been adopted to predict the spread of a disease. The purpose of this study was to predict the hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) outbreak by using the fraction of the population SIR epidemiological model. This study used secondary data from the Bureau of Epidemiology, Department of Disease Control, Ministry of Public Health Thailand that had been retrieved between 1st January 2008 and 31st December 2011, in population aged less than 5 years. Then Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) Model was built from data. The results from SIR simulation show that the estimated reproductive ratio (R0) equals to 1.42813. This ratio is greater than 1 indicating that the disease outbreak will be spread out in Thailand. The susceptible group population should be infected during an outbreak. In summary, HFMD will persist in Thailand under the R0 condition. This suggests that investigating the preventive measures to control the HFMD quickly and the number of infections would decline rapidly over a period of outbreak time.
Description: สามารถเข้าถึงบทความฉบับเต็ม (Full Text) ได้ที่ : https://www.stou.ac.th/thai/grad_stdy/masters/%E0%B8%9D%E0%B8%AA%E0%B8%AA/research/4nd/FullPaper/ST/Poster/P-ST%20006%20%E0%B8%99%E0%B8%B2%E0%B8%A2%E0%B8%8A%E0%B8%B2%E0%B8%95%E0%B8%A3%E0%B8%B5%20%20%E0%B8%81%E0%B8%A5%E0%B8%A1%E0%B9%80%E0%B8%81%E0%B8%A5%E0%B8%B5%E0%B9%89%E0%B8%A2%E0%B8%87.pdf
การจัดประชุมเสนอผลงานวิจัยระดับบัณฑิตศึกษา มหาวิทยาลัยสุโขทัยธรรมาธิราช ครั้งที่ 4 The (4 th STOU Graduate Research Conference) วันที่ 26-27 พฤศจิกายน 2557
URI: https://has.hcu.ac.th/jspui/handle/123456789/3922
Appears in Collections:Science and Technology - Proceeding Document

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